Covid 19 Omicron outbreak: New Zealand’s ‘iceberg’ case size becoming clearer

There were five deaths and a record 12,011 new cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand on Friday.
Video / Jed Bradley / Dean Purcell / Michael Craig / George Heard

Experts have warned Kiwis to continue to expect high numbers of Covid-19 cases as the rollout of a new testing regime begins capturing more of the “iceberg” of cases here.

And a further dire warning of the deadly potential of Covid-19 has been sounded, with University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker saying yesterday’s record figure of five deaths in a day could soon double.

Community cases rapidly rose yesterday to 12,011 while a number of other key Covid-19 metrics also reached record levels.

The numbers come as police warn Auckland motorists they may face severe disruption caused by a freedom rally targeting the Auckland Harbour Bridge today.

“A group of protestors are planning to unlawfully cross the harbour bridge on foot on Saturday,” police said in a statement. “There will be a significant police presence around this protest and we will be actively engaging with those present to deter them from crossing the harbour bridge due to safety risks.

“There may be traffic disruption from late-morning until mid-afternoon as a result. Motorists are advised to use the alternative SH16/SH20 link instead of the harbour bridge crossing, or expect delays.”

Rise in cases

The 95.7 per cent increase in yesterday’s community cases on Wednesday’s number could have been due to the new testing regime that made rapid antigen tests (RATs) more available to the general public, experts say.

Baker said it was reasonable to assume we were now detecting Covid-19 cases in the community that had always been there because of the rollout of a test that was easier to access and carry out.

“With an infection like this where many cases are mild, and asymptomatic, the number you detect, the proportion, it’s like you’ve got an iceberg floating there.

“If you suddenly have a way of visualising more of the iceberg, you get an artificial increase in cases, because we have always known that cases detected, especially with the Omicron variant in the highly vaccinated population, is only a minority of cases.”

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University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied

Earlier in the week RATs were implemented as the primary test used at Auckland community test centres following high demand and stress on the city’s processing capacity.

And Aucklanders can now get free supervised RAT kits from GP and urgent care medical clinics in Auckland. The tests should also be widely available to buy in supermarkets next month and should cost around $8 to $10.

“It’s great we’ve got that additional [option] which obviously looks like it’s meeting a real need, therefore there are fewer barriers than ever for people to go and get tested,” Baker said.

Of the 12,011 new community cases, 3807 were detected via PCR tests and 8223 were identified using RATs. In Auckland alone, 7702 cases were reported yesterday.

The Ministry of Health said the increase in case numbers was not unexpected given the ongoing spread of Omicron and wider testing achieved from the combined use of RATs and PCR.

University of Auckland epidemiologist Professor Rod Jackson said case numbers were expected to jump around a bit, and may dip tomorrow, but ultimately they would continue to go up.

“We were surprised at how slowly they were going up a few days ago. You’d expect them to go up rapidly and I think it was simply because people were not going to get tested.

“Yes the cases are going up hugely but the big jump we’re seeing is a big jump of people going and getting tested,” Jackson told Newstalk ZB.

Professor Rod Jackson of the Auckland University School of Population Health. Photo / Supplied

“It’s possible that tomorrow the cases would go down just simply because we did a bit of a catch-up yesterday – they will ultimately continue to go up.”

The deaths of five people with Covid-19 were also reported yesterday – taking New Zealand’s tally since the pandemic began to 61.

This is the most Covid-19 deaths recorded in a day in New Zealand. The previous highest was four deaths on April 14, 2020.

Two of the people who died were being cared for on Auckland’s North Shore, two were in Waikato and one was in Tauranga.

Baker said the big jump in daily reported deaths looked shocking after the last two years where New Zealand had gone long periods of having no deaths at all – but over the next two to three months the country would see a higher number of deaths.

“We’re going to see a lot more deaths and we will see some days probably with more than 10 deaths a day,” he said.

“We are expecting several hundred deaths during this Omicron wave.”

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s positivity rate – the percentage of tests that are positive – via PCR testing for the previous 24-hour period was 27.4 per cent yesterday. On Thursday, the country’s positivity rate was 10.9 per cent.

Hospitalisation figures were a key figure to look at, both experts said, and yesterday there were 237 people in hospital, including three in intensive care.

They are at Northland, North Shore, Middlemore, Auckland, Tauranga, Hawke’s Bay, Capital and Coast, Hutt Valley, Canterbury and Southern hospitals.

“The threshold for going to hospital is a fairly fixed one,” Baker said.

“The threshold for getting a test will vary quite a bit, depending on your circumstances and as we’ve seen, if you make testing more convenient and faster you’re getting a lot more people going and getting tested.”

Jackson urged everyone eligible for a booster to go and get boosted.

“It makes a big difference. All those kids eligible for vaccination, please have your children vaccinated, we really need to slow this outbreak down.”

There were 25,461 booster doses administered on Thursday and now about 68.8 per cent of the eligible population has been boosted.