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September 12, 2021: 20 new community cases of Covid-19 are announced all in Auckland, one day away from a Cabinet alert level decision. Video / NZ Herald
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Covid-19 experts say mystery cases are what could hold Auckland and the rest of the country back from moving alert levels today.
Yesterday, 20 new community Covid cases were reported, all of them in Auckland. However, there were 34 unlinked cases.
Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said there was “no widespread community transmission in Auckland” but assumed there could be more cases out there.
As Cabinet meets today to review alert levels for the whole country, what do Covid-19 experts think will happen?
Epidemiologist Michael Baker
Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said he is “optimistic” New Zealand will stamp out the current Covid-19 outbreak but he believes unlinked cases will affect Cabinet’s decision.
“We are at this frustrating stage where you have got the long tail, so I think the difficulty really is we’ve still got evidence of case appearing in the community,”.
Although cases then become “linkable” to previously reported positive cases, Baker said they are still an area of worry.
“The fact that they are not known means they are in the community potentially infecting other people.”
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If Auckland were to move out of alert level 4, Baker said new clusters would appear.
“We know alert level 4 is working well, the reproduction number is really low, but now it seems too soon to reduce the pressure on this virus.”
While all recent cases have been in Auckland, Baker said the rest of the country must remain careful.
“We still have essential workers going around the country and there is a chance someone could carry the virus with them.”
Ideally, Baker said the rest of the country could move down to alert level 1 once Auckland has moved down to level 3.
Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu
Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu at University of Otago Wellington called Auckland’s mystery cases”concerning.”
As long as mystery cases continue to pop up, Sika-Paotonu said they are likely to affect Auckland’s change in alert levels.
“The unlinked cases highlight the need for everyone to remain vigilant as the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus cannot be allowed to run rampant within our communities – we’ve seen other countries punished for their delayed actions.”
As community transmission continues, Sika-Paotonu said it is important to recognise and break now virus transmission paths for the virus quickly.
Sika-Paotonu said it is “critical” for those who need to get tested to have one done and not be afraid.
However, she said the recent vaccination deals with Denmark and Spain are a “relief”.
Immunologist Graham Le Gros
Immunologist Graham Le Gros said the mystery cases means the virus has gone “underground”.
“At the end of the day, this virus is changing,” Le Gros said.
However, he believes the efforts by New Zealanders must now be put into getting vaccinated.
“We have to face up to the fact that we have to go to the next stage, which is a fully vaccinated population,” Le Gros said.
New Zealand’s long-term strategy should not be elimination, Le Gros said.
“I think the Government has to be realistic. I think elimination has only been good enough to give us enough time to get everyone vaccinated,” he said.
Le Gros believes border controls used to keep coronavirus out of New Zealand or contained in one region are not sustainable in the long term.
“It’s not that NZ is not trying hard enough, it’s just that the Delta variant does not play by the rules. It’s a virus that’s constantly able to change infection strategy and change the degree to which it induces symptoms.”
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